Market Shift

I’ve been thinking a lot about the challenges you’re facing in the current market. It’s clear we’re feeling a shift, but after digging into the numbers over the weekend, I can confidently tell you: this market is not what it seems.

The Market is Moving – Just Not How You Expect

I know the general feeling right now is that the market is slow. However, in September, sales were actually up. In fact, pending sales saw an impressive 33% increase over August. That’s right—despite the slow showings some of you are experiencing, the market is still very active.

So, why does it feel like nothing is happening when your listings aren’t getting any showings? Agents have shared stories of launching well-priced, beautifully staged homes that simply sit with no interest—just crickets. The answer lies in the numbers.

More Listings, Stable Demand

One major factor is inventory. In September, inventory was up 33.5% compared to last year. This means that buyers are spreading their attention across a greater number of listings. Supply is way up, while demand remains stable—making it feel like the market has slowed, even though buyers are still out there.

New listings increased by 13.3% in September, while closed sales dropped by 17.4%. Our industry, at its core, is driven by supply and demand. Right now, supply is outpacing demand, creating a competitive environment for sellers.

The Impact of NAR Changes

Another factor at play is the recent NAR (National Association of Realtors) changes, which have reshaped buyer behavior:

Casual Buyers Are Staying Home: Buyers who aren’t serious are now avoiding Realtors because they don’t want to sign a Buyer Representation Agreement (BRA). These casual buyers, who used to be “lookie-loos” at showings, are now browsing online until they’re more committed.
Fewer Showings, More Serious Buyers: Post-NAR changes, showings are fewer, but those who do come are more serious. Where it might have taken 15 showings to sell a house before, it could now take just 5.
In-Person Showings are Shifting to Open Houses: Buyers have realized they can avoid signing a BRA by visiting open houses directly, making open houses a key opportunity for agents to connect with prospective buyers without the formalities.
The Rise of Online Activity: While in-person showings have decreased, online engagement is booming. In September alone, there were 1.6 million listing views just for our Coachella Valley properties. Buyers are out there—just remind your sellers that “showings” now happen online too, and use Listing Concierge views to prove it.

Interest Rates, Elections, and Buyer Hesitation

Lower interest rates haven’t brought buyers out in droves yet. Many are waiting for rates to drop even more. But as Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst for BankRate, pointed out, a further drop in interest rates could create a surge in demand, making it even harder to buy a house.

Ryan at GRA has a plan to help buyers take advantage of current conditions: he’s offering to pay for their refinance when rates drop later. This could be a great opportunity for buyers to lock in lower prices now and refinance later. We need to educate our buyers—if they wait for lower rates, they could miss out on current opportunities, especially with prices likely to rise again.

With a Presidential Election on the horizon, uncertainty looms, but we need to remind buyers that now is the time to act. Historically, in 6 of the last 7 presidential election cycles, home prices have increased. Right now, buyers have more inventory to choose from, sellers are more negotiable, and refinancing is an option when rates go down.

What Can You Do? It’s time to Double Down on the right things

In challenging markets, opportunities abound for those who push harder. As James Bianco said, “I’m doubling down on everything right now.” Here’s how you can follow suit:

Focus on Listing Season: We’ve got 3,000 listings coming on the market in October, November, and December, and another 5,000 in January, February, and March. If half of your listings don’t sell, make sure you have twice as many to work with.
Engage Your Database: Make sure you’re visible. Get in your clients’ mailbox, email inbox, and social media feed. Follow my 6-week plan and stay consistent with your farming deadlines. Attend every sales meeting and workshop—stay sharp and informed.
Communicate Urgency to Buyers: Reach out to every buyer and explain the importance of buying before the election. Talk about the dangers of waiting for rates to drop and show them Ryan’s refinancing plan. Be proactive—position yourself as the agent who truly understands market dynamics.
Host Neighbor-Focused Open Houses: Open houses shouldn’t be passive. Invite the neighbors—they’re your best source of leads for the neighborhood. Some of them might even be considering selling.
Move On From Stagnant Listings: Don’t get stuck on listings that aren’t moving. Sometimes a price reduction won’t help. Focus on what’s next—use your current listings as a platform to generate new business opportunities.

Embrace the New Market Landscape

The market may be shifting, but there are plenty of ways to leverage the current environment to your advantage. More inventory, serious buyers, and upcoming elections create an opportunity for you to shine. Double down, focus, and position yourself as the expert your clients need right now. The time to act is now—let’s make the most of it!